| Clay Warmup Study |
When Roland Garros gets underway the prognosticators are out in full force, telling us who the favorites are
for the title. The predictions are based on two factors: 1) Previous success at Roland Garros and 2)
Current form shown in the claycourt tournaments leading up to Paris. This study will look at (2) to see if
there is indeed a strong correlation between how players fare in the clay warmups and subsequently at
Roland Garros. (updated thru 2006)
Point allocation for warmups
We will look at all clay results between Key Biscayne and Roland Garros since 1990.
Masters Series - Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg. These were assigned special status in 1990 (Super 9) and
have draws of 56 or 64 (all now are 64). Points: W-10 F-7 SF-4 QF-2
Barcelona - not as prestigious as the top three, but a 56-draw and has always attracted a strong claycourt
field. Points: W-8 F-5 SF-3 QF-1
Minor Europe tourneys - ranging from Casablanca to Madrid to Munich, all these tournaments have a
32-draw and are played on red clay. Points: W-6 F-4 SF-2
Final tuneup - the last ATP tournament before Roland Garros. From 1990-95 it was Bologna, and since 1996
it has been St. Polten (Casablanca moved to this position briefly in 2004). Most top players either compete
in the World Team Championship or take this week off, and the value of this tourney is reduced accordingly.
Points: W-4 F-2 SF-1
American tourneys - the weak 32-draw sisters of the clay season, these not only have attracted extremely
poor fields but (worse) have been usually played on green clay, which is faster than red clay and thus of
dubious value in predicting Roland Garros success. Points: W-3 F-2 SF-1
Top performances since 1990
Getting to the heart of the matter - who has had the best clay warmup results? And how did they do in
Paris? Here are all the season point totals over 20, with the subsequent RG result in ( ).
1996 36 Thomas Muster (4R)
1995 34 Thomas Muster (WON)
2001 31 Juan Carlos Ferrero (SF)
1992 29 Carlos Costa (4R)
2005 28 Rafael Nadal (WON)
2006 28 Rafael Nadal (WON)
1997 27 Alex Corretja (4R)
1991 25 Sergi Bruguera (2R)
1994 24 Andrei Medvedev (QF)
1999 23 Marcelo Rios (QF)
2003 23 Juan Carlos Ferrero (WON)
1999 22 Gustavo Kuerten (QF)
1990 21 Thomas Muster (SF)
1993 21 Sergi Bruguera (WON)
2000 21 Marat Safin (QF)
1990 20 Andrei Chesnokov (4R)
1990 20 Juan Aguilera (2R)
No surprise to see Muster topping the list - not once but twice. What may surprise is that 1996 outranks
1995. Both seasons were remarkable; in each he won Estoril, Barcelona, Monte Carlo, and Rome. In 1996 he
threw in a SF at Munich for good measure. Others on the list include the usual suspects - Nadal, Ferrero,
Kuerten, Bruguera; plus some other clay studs that may have been forgotten like Costa (the other one) and
Chesnokov (there were good Russians before Yevgeny).
What you have no doubt noticed already is that this list of 17 great clay court seasons produced only 5
winners in Paris. Does that invalidate the good clay warmups = good RG result theory? Not entirely. Note
that there are many SF and QF RG results. But it may suggest a burnout factor in playing so many matches
beforehand, especially matches with no rest days which occurs in all these warmup events.
for the title. The predictions are based on two factors: 1) Previous success at Roland Garros and 2)
Current form shown in the claycourt tournaments leading up to Paris. This study will look at (2) to see if
there is indeed a strong correlation between how players fare in the clay warmups and subsequently at
Roland Garros. (updated thru 2006)
Point allocation for warmups
We will look at all clay results between Key Biscayne and Roland Garros since 1990.
Masters Series - Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg. These were assigned special status in 1990 (Super 9) and
have draws of 56 or 64 (all now are 64). Points: W-10 F-7 SF-4 QF-2
Barcelona - not as prestigious as the top three, but a 56-draw and has always attracted a strong claycourt
field. Points: W-8 F-5 SF-3 QF-1
Minor Europe tourneys - ranging from Casablanca to Madrid to Munich, all these tournaments have a
32-draw and are played on red clay. Points: W-6 F-4 SF-2
Final tuneup - the last ATP tournament before Roland Garros. From 1990-95 it was Bologna, and since 1996
it has been St. Polten (Casablanca moved to this position briefly in 2004). Most top players either compete
in the World Team Championship or take this week off, and the value of this tourney is reduced accordingly.
Points: W-4 F-2 SF-1
American tourneys - the weak 32-draw sisters of the clay season, these not only have attracted extremely
poor fields but (worse) have been usually played on green clay, which is faster than red clay and thus of
dubious value in predicting Roland Garros success. Points: W-3 F-2 SF-1
Top performances since 1990
Getting to the heart of the matter - who has had the best clay warmup results? And how did they do in
Paris? Here are all the season point totals over 20, with the subsequent RG result in ( ).
1996 36 Thomas Muster (4R)
1995 34 Thomas Muster (WON)
2001 31 Juan Carlos Ferrero (SF)
1992 29 Carlos Costa (4R)
2005 28 Rafael Nadal (WON)
2006 28 Rafael Nadal (WON)
1997 27 Alex Corretja (4R)
1991 25 Sergi Bruguera (2R)
1994 24 Andrei Medvedev (QF)
1999 23 Marcelo Rios (QF)
2003 23 Juan Carlos Ferrero (WON)
1999 22 Gustavo Kuerten (QF)
1990 21 Thomas Muster (SF)
1993 21 Sergi Bruguera (WON)
2000 21 Marat Safin (QF)
1990 20 Andrei Chesnokov (4R)
1990 20 Juan Aguilera (2R)
No surprise to see Muster topping the list - not once but twice. What may surprise is that 1996 outranks
1995. Both seasons were remarkable; in each he won Estoril, Barcelona, Monte Carlo, and Rome. In 1996 he
threw in a SF at Munich for good measure. Others on the list include the usual suspects - Nadal, Ferrero,
Kuerten, Bruguera; plus some other clay studs that may have been forgotten like Costa (the other one) and
Chesnokov (there were good Russians before Yevgeny).
What you have no doubt noticed already is that this list of 17 great clay court seasons produced only 5
winners in Paris. Does that invalidate the good clay warmups = good RG result theory? Not entirely. Note
that there are many SF and QF RG results. But it may suggest a burnout factor in playing so many matches
beforehand, especially matches with no rest days which occurs in all these warmup events.
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